Auction house Findings: An Introduction by Mike Rosenberg

Originally slated to be the start of a financial column for Tim Rivera's site, Cake Draft Masters, this article series by Run Good Club founder Mike Rosenberg will be posted here until the site is ready for its re-launch. Once the site is ready, this article series can be found as a regular column for Cake Draft Masters. Until then, enjoy!

Remember when Nathanos Blightcaller used to not cost over $15 each? Or when Death Wish spiked from a dollar rare to a money rare? How about when Flickers of the Past and Netherbreath Spellblade went from 1-2 dollars to 3-4 dollars? If you don't remember any of these, then chances are that you paid out the butt for these cards, or you barn someone's collection. I'm not 100% on top of the market like someone such as Damien Dufresne from The Metamart, who makes his living knowing how cards will fluctuate and adjusting his buys and sells accordingly. However, I follow the market closely, as I find pricing trends in games to be an interesting study of a steady (and sometimes unsteady) market. It's also potentially lucrative, and has let me make a little extra entertainment money even when I don't have solid work. You don't want to know how much I paid for the thirty copies of Death Wish I had at one point (or maybe you do – in which case, read on!)

It's easy to say that a little knowledge of the constructed formats and a little testing could have prevented some players from missing out on these cards when they were at their cheapest. However, that's not all of it. There are more than just one or two factors which influence prices. There is a list of qualities that a card has to fulfill to determine whether it is worth its price, or whether it is being undervalued. This is a good way to look at new cards, especially with the release of Icecrown coming in a month.

Power

Obviously. Power is an important detail on whether a rare or epic card is worth more than a dollar upon release. There's a reason nobody is going to pay big bucks for a Charles Worth(less)!

Note that power of a card can be detailed in a number of ways. There are cards which are powerful on their own (Feral Spirit, Death Wish, Weldon Barov), and require little to no building around to be good. Then there are cards which are not powerful in a vacuum, but become much better when paired with other great cards. The best recent examples of these can be seen with Flickers from the Past and Netherbreath Spellblade. Flickers does not do much on its own, but when combined with Mana Sapphires, ongoing spot-removal that can be destroyed on a whim, healing on an ongoing, and other assorted utility abilities that can be easily put into the graveyard, Flickers from the Past becomes amazing. Netherbreath Spellblade is in a similar boat, where it becomes good to re-use certain abilities over and over again, and it also has a combination that creates an unfair game state (it can create a hard-lock with Slow and a recurring Mystic Denial).

While power is an important factor to a card's success, it doesn't determine value immediately. Sometimes, it helps (see Flint Shadowmore, who instantly started off as a top-dollar card from Scourgwar for being clearly good at his cost and for an ally that can be played in numerous deck types). But it's definitely not the only determining factor.

Exposure

Exposure is one of the biggest influences for fluctuating card prices. It's also not how you want to find out that a card is going to go up in value, as it usually means that you are behind the curve on knowing what's hot and what's not! However, knowing that a card will spike or drop in value based on exposure (or a lack thereof) at a tournament is a good way to grab great deals at the various online web sites, which typically do not change their prices immediately upon the finishing of a big tournament.

Exposure can come in multiple ways. The most common is success at a big tournament. This was the big indicator for cards like Flickers from the Past and Netherbreath Spellblade, as well as Death Wish, since these cards saw significant play during the Darkmoon Faire main event in Houston.

However, sometimes a card can spike or fall in value due to pre-tournament hype. This is usually seen through supply and demand at the dealers on-site. Nathanos Blightcaller spiked drastically during the weekend of the Darkmoon Faire in Houston, as the demand for the 4-cost epic ally was high but the supply was low. As a result, dealers were buying the card at a higher price and could figure out how much players were willing to pay to get the insane token-maker. Other cards, such as Saurfang the Younger, Kor'kron Vanguard, also jumped off of pre-tournament hype, but unlike Nathanos which saw some success at its big event, Saurfang the Younger runs the risk of falling due to a lack of noticed performance at Worlds (note: I said noticed performance. It runs the risk of going down 1-2 dollars from its current price-tag, but it saw successful play thanks to the New Jersey team's Death Wish deck. It's definitely a big deal, and earns its price tag even if it cools off for a little while).

Supply

There's a reason Scourgewar cards have not dropped in value, and why Broderick Langforth keeps going up. It's hard to get product! There is high demand for the first set from the Wrath of the Lich King block, but because of a lack of product available, the good singles will keep going up!

Wrathgate, on the other hand, has had a few money cards available to it. However, because it is not a hard set to obtain and there is far more sealed product available than Scourgewar, its singles are not doing nearly as well. It's the common supply and demand factor that has influenced the prices of these two sets.

Supply, or a lack thereof, is also a huge influence over the prices of epic cards, which are a lot harder to get play-sets of from sealed product. This is the reason for the high prices of allies like Weldon Barov, who was in a set that had little demand to be opened and was a hard-to-get epic, making his value spike up to $60 during the North American Continental Championships from 2009 due to nobody wanting to open Drums of War in order to get him.

Lack of demand for opening sealed product, or a general lack of quality in most rares for a set, also has a huge influence on WoW TCG card prices. Blood of the Gladiators, in general, was an underpowered set that featured a few notable rares. Those rares have maintained high values, and at their peaks, usually go into double-digits, such as Blizzard, Kazamon Steelskin, and Orgimmar. The lack of demand for product from this set also influences the price of uncommons, which can go above the dollar line if they are demanded enough. Mikael the Blunt and The Taste of Arcana are both examples of this, as you could easily get 1-2 dollars for each of these when they are in-demand (the lack of demanded loots also made Blood of the Gladiators a set without demand. The quality and value of loot cards in a set is a huge influence on the availability of a set's singles as sets which lack valuable loots typically don't get opened on a wider scale).

Versatility

Death Wish and Feral Spirit are both extremely powerful cards, and their price tags reflect this. But they won't go higher, and you shouldn't expect them to. Why is that?

It's simple, really. Both of these cards are limited to one specific class, meaning that their deck applications are limited to only decks based on the class they represent. On top of that, they are talent abilities, meaning they are typically locked into only one deck type. Feral Spirit may be insane, but you're only going to find it in an Enhancement Shaman deck most likely with an aggressive or mid-range strategy.

Broderick Langforth, meanwhile, continues to go up and can easily fetch $20. The reason for that is simple: it is a Horde ally, meaning any deck with a Horde hero can run it. Having multiples in your deck is a good thing, and you are rewarded for drawing more of him in a game, so these decks will typically run 4. On top of that, he can go into multiple deck archetypes, such as aggro, solo (it benefits your hero!), and control (it lets your hero net you card advantage against aggressive decks while giving you a hard-to-answer threat in the slower control mirrors).

There are more factors that explain why cards can fluctuate so much in price, but these are some of the most general reasons for why they do. Learning how other factors, or how these main reasons, influence specific card values differs between each rare and epic. There are definitely some unique case-studies on cards and their price changes, especially with things like loot cards and extended-art promos. I will delve more into those into the coming weeks.

Check back soon for an in-depth look at Scourgewar, what the low-points were for some of its cards, why their values went so low and why they spiked, and why they continue to go up. Until then, best of luck on getting the most out of your money and your collection!

(Average Value I paid on the copies of Death Wish I ended up with - $1.49)

(Average value I sold my copies of Death Wish at between Ebay, my local shop, and online buy-lists: $4.50)

Mike Rosenberg has been involved with nearly every aspect of organized play during his time playing the World of Warcraft Trading Card Game. With multiple money-finishes at National and World tournaments, as well as an understanding of the game from a merchant, judge, and tournament organizer perspective, Mike has a well-rounded view point on the changes and workings of the game.